Voto Latino’s New Precinct-Level Data Reveals How Latino Voters in Arizona and Nevada Are Transforming Elections - Voto Latino

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Voto Latino’s New Precinct-Level Data Reveals How Latino Voters in Arizona and Nevada Are Transforming Elections

A new report released this week by Voto Latino, the nation’s largest Latinx voter engagement organization, shows the critical role Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada play in assembling a winning coalition for Democratic candidates.

Voto Latino’s new data analysis, conducted in partnership with Clarity Campaign Labs, examines precinct-level data to learn about Latino voter turnout over the last decade. Latinos have consistently increased their share of the states’ voting bloc, as evident in recent elections. In Arizona and Nevada, Latino voters overwhelmingly lean Democratic, but there are disproportionate gaps in electoral participation largely due to the lack of investment in the community. With the 2024 election approaching, Democratic candidates should focus their attention on Latino voters across key states and mobilize the weight of their voting bloc to win the election.

“As we approach 2024, it’s critical for Democratic candidates to treat Latino voters as the indispensable decision makers that they are,” said María Teresa Kumar, President and CEO of Voto Latino. “This data shows where we could be if the Latino community received the kind of sustained investment that we know dramatically boosts turnout. Shrinking the turnout gap between Latino voters and White voters, even marginally, will be the difference between winning and losing across many key races – just as we saw in Arizona and Nevada in 2022. With over 4 million Latinos reaching voting age by the next presidential election, the Latino vote is rapidly growing and only becoming more impactful.”

Some key findings of the report include:

Arizona

  • Latino voters have made up >15% of the electorate in every election since 2016.
  • Over the past decade, more than a quarter of all precincts in AZ have had a substantial population of Latino voters.
    • As of 2023, over one-third of all precincts in AZ have a substantial Latino population.
  • Dems lost the majority in AZ’s congressional delegation, but Dems in the state’s majority-Latino districts comfortably won re-election.
  • Areas with high proportions of Latino voters tend to be more supportive of Democratic candidates.
  • Latinos, young voters, and voters in suburban areas are increasingly significant groups in Arizona’s electorate, and their growth has supported electoral gains for Democrats in the state.

Nevada

  • Latino voters have made up >15% of the electorate in every election in the last decade, except the 2014 midterms.
  • As of 2023, nearly one-third of all precincts in NV have a substantial Latino population, and 5% of all precincts in NV are majority Latino.
  • Areas with high proportions of Latino voters tend to be more supportive of Democratic candidates.
  • Latinos and young voters are increasingly significant groups in NV’s electorate. However, rural voters and voters unaffiliated with a political party have also increased their vote share in recent elections, largely leaving Democratic performance in the state at a standstill.

You can see the full slide deck here.

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Voto Latino is a grassroots political organization focused on educating and empowering a new generation of Latinx voters, as well as creating a more robust and inclusive democracy. Through innovative digital campaigns, culturally relevant programs and authentic voices, we shepherd the Latinx community towards the full realization of its political power.